Kenneth L. Bird: Afghanistan is in need of railroads to succeed

Anyone who has seen the videos and photos coming from Afghanistan over the past nine years will no doubt feel that bringing that county from its current 14th century status into the 21st century is an impossible goal. Culturally, the country is a collection of ancient tribes loosely wedded by the traditions of fundamental Islam. The land has been fought over for centuries by both the indigenous people and invaders. The invaders have always been repulsed, and further attempts at conquest led to an insular and isolationist attitude of Afghan leaders.

Consequently, modernization has always been resisted by the population and that included the establishment of railroads. After 185 years of worldwide development of the railroad, Afghanistan still has no functioning railroads, except for a few short lines on the northern border connecting with Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Attempts to build railroads by the British in the 19th century were thwarted by geopolitics and the resistance of Afghanistan rulers. One attempt had a line being built to the Afghanistan-India (now Pakistan) border at Chama. The Ruling emir, Amir Abdul Rehman, described the potential railway as “a knife pushed into my vitals.” The line was never extended across the border, and other rail projects that were started soon faced termination and outright destruction at the hands of irate Afghanis. Over the decades of the 20th century, a number of schemes were proposed to build rail lines in the country, with one of the last being a 1978 proposal by the U.S. to help fund a rail network. These plans were canceled by the Russian invasion in 1979.

This lack of railroads plagued the Russians in their invasion in 1979 and contributed to their defeat by Afghan rebels. Today, the same situation creates a daunting logistics situation to the U.S. military, as all war-making supplies must be flown into the country or transported over poorly built and largely indefensible roads from Pakistan. Being without railroads, Afghanistan has never been able to develop a modern industrial base and has relied on a primitive agricultural economy with the major crop being poppy plants.

A recent study by the U.S. Geological Survey has demonstrated that the country has more than $1 trillion worth of minerals that could be extracted. Mineral production would add to the GDP of the country and provide viable employment to hundreds of thousands who have only known the dubious art of making war.

Yet, without a railroad network with the capacity to move millions of tons of freight to build the mines and transport the mine products, the country will remain land-locked and isolated economically. The benefits of a rail network would also enhance the general economy, providing rapid transportation of internal goods and increasing imports of vitally needed goods for reconstruction of the war-torn country.

The proliferation of the steel rails could also affect the culture and the social fabric of Afghanistan, by allowing major sections of the population to travel both internally and beyond its borders. This interchange of culture may moderate the tribal makeup of the country, contributing to a more pluralistic democracy.

If Afghanistan is to have railroads, the question of who will build them has to be determined. With a current GDP of only $1 billion, there is no money for keeping up the primitive road system, much less building railroads at a cost of $5 million to $20 million per mile. Rail projects will have to be built by external investors through funding by the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the U.N. and private companies who would be guaranteed some return on their investment.

At this writing, a number of countries have expressed an interest in helping to build the Afghanistan rail network. These include China, Iran and Pakistan. Pakistan would be the natural outlet for any Afghanistan rail network, as the country has rail lines connecting to deep-water ports, including the new Chinese-built port at Gwadar on the Arabian Sea. In the west, Iran could provide a link through to the Middle East, and an extension of the branch line from Uzbekistan would provide connections with Russia and Eastern Europe.

Construction has begun on a 50-mile link from neighboring Uzbekistan to the northern Afghan city of Mazar-i-Sharif; this line is being funded by the Asian Development Bank and the Uzbek Railroad Co. One of its benefits will be the faster movement of U.S. military supplies from Uzbekistan. The line should be finished by September. Another rail line is being considered to link the western Afghan city of Herat to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas.

Afghanistan is the last major land mass that does not have a unified railroad network; building one would be not unlike that of the continental lines of the U.S. in the 19th century. The results could be much the same, with explosive growth, economic development and the modernization of a primitive land.

Kenneth L. Bird was a member of The National Commission on Intermodal Transportation during the Clinton administration and was president of The Illinois Association of Railroad Passengers from 1980 to 2000. He retired to his native Missouri in 2005 and maintains an interest in public policy issues involving railroad transportation.